Homework 1
Assigned 8/21/12
This is a “large” homework that counts three times as much as “small” homework
Hard copy due beginning of class on 8/28/12
Instructions
Read the article AD.A.1 and watch the videos at http://seedsppp.blogspot.com/2012/04/epicurean-frame-of-mind.html to answer the following questions. Answers must be typed and written in complete, thoughtful sentences. I am not asking you to list blurbs or a few phrases of what you read. Instead I want to see answers indicating you read the article and watched the videos at least twice and gave considerable thought to your answer.
For example, when telling me what “casting lots” means I want to know every instance you saw it in the article, and your brief thoughts on it. This is frustrating, I know, but this is my way of making sure you really read the articles carefully. Test questions will be pulled from the homeworks.
How you write is a sign of what kind of person you are. Incoherent sentences with bad grammar indicates a student who cares little about learning or earning a good grade, and has not learned the proper rules for writing. If you show little interest in learning good grammar, how is the reader to have confidence that you learned other things you presume to talk about?
Your grammar doesn’t need to be perfect, not in a homework (in “Important Emails” grammar must be near perfect). I simply need you to write in a way that shows you are an educated person. You should get into the habit of this, so that when you exchange emails in your first job you earn the confidence of others.
You grade will be determined by the accuracy of your answers and my impression of how well you studied and thought about the article.
(A) Definitions—define the following words or terms and how they are discussed in the article, and do so using thoughtful sentences.
(A.1) Stochasticity
(A.2) Empirical
(A.4) Sabermetrics
(B) People, Stories, and Concepts
(B.1) When I say you must be an Epicurean to perform data analysis, what do I mean?
(B.2) What did the Templeton Foundation discover about prayer?
(B.3) What do we know about the happiness and health of religious people, compared to less religious people?
(B.4) Suppose you have a choice between two jobs, and you choose jobs by flipping a coin. What does that coin flip mean to a modern American, compared to an ancient Jew, Greek, or Roman?
(B.5) Why did Medieval art look so unrealistic?
(B.6) What did Karl Marx lie about?
(B.7) What made Skinhead Frank Meenik change his views on other races?
(B.8) How does the retailer Target know when its customers are pregnant?
(B.9) How does Target advertise to women they believe are pregnant without the women knowing Target is tracking their personal life?
(B.10) Explain how Moneyball used statistics to commit arbitrage. In your answer, explain what arbitrage is.
(B.11) How did Lisa Simpson learn about Sabermetrics?
(B.12) In recent years, compared to past decades, how has the bell-shaped curve for global temperatures changed? Answer by discussing whether it has shifted left or right and/or whether it has flattened or become steeper. Do this by studying Figure 6.
(B.13) This is a true story. A man by the name of Professor Pope Hill flipped a coin 100,000 times in the 1930s. It took him an entire year, but he did complete the exercise, finding that 49,855(49.855%) resulted in a 'heads' and 50,145 (50.145%) resulted in 'tails'. Does this mean that a ‘tails’ is more likely than a ‘heads’ in a coin flip? Answer how the field of statistics approaches this question, paying careful attention to the role of stochastic and deterministic factors in the coin flip. A coin flip analogy was made in Section C, and you might find it helpful.
